January looks like being one of the worst months ever for avalanche fatalities amongst off piste and backcountry skiers. It looks like around 40 people will have lost their lives in avalanches in the Alps this month alone – usually the fatalities for the entire season are about 100, so this year is on track to be one of the worst. The distinction for the wordt season ever currently stands with 147 avalanche deaths in 2017/18.
From a meteorological and snow science perspective, the 2025/26 season has been the perfect storm of dangerous conditions. Experts are calling it a “once in a two-decade” phenomenon.
The disaster was seeded back in late autumn. After a cold, dry spell, the initial snowpack didn’t consolidate properly. Instead, the snow crystals transformed into a loose, sugary layer called “persistent weak layer” (or depth hoar). During January fresh, heavy snow landed directly on top of that fragile, sugary base layer.
This is where the science meets human nature. You noted the majority of victims are off-piste and backcountry skiers. Reports suggest 90 to 95% of fatal avalanches are triggered by the victims themselves .
The deep, fresh powder that skiers crave is the same snow that is dangerously unstable. creating a terrible paradox:
- Ignored Warnings: Despite high-risk warnings, many experienced skiers ventured into closed or unprotected areas .
- The Herd Instinct: Experts note that seeing other tracks in the powder distorts risk perception. Skiers follow others into dangerous terrain, assuming it must be safe .
- High Traffic: After recent snowstorms, more people than usual headed into the backcountry, increasing the statistical chance of accidents
- Increased Popularity of Back Country Skiing: Many piste skiers are taking up ski touring as it is seen as ecologically more attractive than skiing on piste with all its mechanical equipment and snow cannons.
It’s a stark reminder that in the backcountry, nature, not the skier, is always in charge.