Economic Impact of Climate Change on Ski resorts

I read some articles recently in the academic press on the impact of global warming on ski resort economies. The value of winter sports to Alpine nations is substantial – one study reckoned that roughly half of overnight stays in Austria and Switzerland are attributable to winter tourism. I am sceptical of their claim that is over the whole year, but together with associated economic activity, skiing is clearly a major source of tourist revenue for Alpine nations.

One study of a German ski area, expected the impact of global warming by 2040 to be as much as 30% fewer skiers and a hit of up to 56% on the local economy, exacerbated by an aging skier demography. The study used estimates of what it called the “100 day rule” and the “Christmas rule”.

A study of 208 ski areas in Austria is more positive, citing snowmaking capacity and adaptive in-season demand as factors in mitigating climate change, This study estimated an average season length losses being 10-16% through until the 2050s. However the study recognises that the impact will be disproportionate with lower resorts inevitably the most hard hit.

NE USA Resorts marked in blue that will not be viable by 2040

Some of the literature identifies mitigation strategies. A paper on the impact for package holiday tourists came up with these conclusions: “winter mountain holidaying is a highly segmented market. Even at a mountain destination strongly associated with skiing, there are many tourists who do not ski and spend their time doing something else”. Eating and drinking figure highly, particularly enjoying local cuisines.

Swiss resorts in particular have an advantage for retaining winter tourists even if there is unreliable snow. Many Swiss resorts have charm and history. Additionally many benefit from higher altitude and a range of winter activities that don’t require snow, – such as ice-skating, curling and spas. Events like Arosa Gay Week and the WEF at Davos illustrate examples of where skiing may not be the main focus for winter sports destinations, and people still find value in their visit to the mountains even if it does not provide an extensive skiing experience with any reliability.

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Disastrous Christmas Ski Conditions

Lack of snow on the French Alps could spell disaster for ski season

The 2022/23 winter ski season got off to a slow start compared to the extraordinary 2021/22 season. There was a 24% decline in first time winter visitors and a 9% drop in overall sales. The main reason for the modest start is the warm temperatures after Christmas, which forced many ski lifts to close at lower altitudes. Additionally there was a short holiday season due to the public holidays falling on the weekends. Compared to the five-year average, the decrease in first-time visitors is 11%, but sales volume held up.

Many winter sports enthusiasts who did make it to the mountains, often having booked their Christmas in the Alps many months earlier, were unable to ski and snowboard at all. Lower resorts in some areas closed or were unable to keep open resort runs and beginner areas.

Freak weather conditions do happen, in this case from warm air being swept up from the South. However it is hard not to think global warming is playing a part. Meteorologists at Météo France reckon that snow cover in mid-level mountain areas could be reduced by up to 40% by 2050 as a result of global warming.

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Avalanche Fatalities

WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF , 4.02.2021

Although most ski lifts have remained open in Switzerland during the Covid pandemic, more skiers and snowboarders than ever are choosing to go back-country skiing. Inevitably this has led to a record number of avalanche fatalities, with the number of fatal incidents this season to date more than any previous season this century. The season average is 22 fatalities, whereas this year there have been 17 already – and notably that also represents 17 separate incidents.

Fatalities by risk factor

A handful of fatalities were from skiing off-piste, i.e. using lift-served unmarked routes, but the majority of the deaths in Switzerland have been back-country skiers and snowboarders. One would generally expect these people to be better prepared than those killed off-piste. Four of the back-country fatalities occurred when the avalanche risk was moderate. These include one in the Jura, the first avalanche fatality in this area that I am aware of in over 20 years.

One off-piste fatality of a British skier occurred below les Attelas in Verbier on 18th January when the avalanche risk was moderate. This is generally considered a ‘safe’ off-piste area, bounded as it is by lifts and groomed runs. As is usually the case, the unfortunate skier was not alone, and other people were also caught by the avalanche but survived.

Interestingly very few avalanche fatalities (3%) historically occur when the avalanche risk is high and none when the risk is very high. The majority of deaths occur when the avalanche risk is considered considerable (65%). For people going off-piste an even higher proportion of fatalities occur when the risk is considerable.

Not surprisingly the majority of fatalities occur in Grabunden and Valais since these cantons are most popular for back-country touring and off-piste. However this does not mean other areas are safe. To add to the fatality in the Jura, there was also a fatality this season in Rochers de Naye amongst a group of young skiers – this in a pre-Alpine ski resort above Montreux.

The message to me seems clear. If the risk of an avalanche is considered anything more than moderate even well-prepared back-country outings would be well advised to abandon their plans. However 30% of fatalities occur when the avalanche risk is moderate (and 2% when it is low), so the advice is to thoroughly plan back-country expeditions and off-piste runs even in these conditions.

It is worth adding that every year there are also fatalities amongst other winter sports enthusiasts, typically a couple of snowshoe walkers a year die in avalanches. Additionally over 90% of avalanche fatalities are triggered by the victims and their companions.

Switzerland has the most sophisticated avalanche-warning system in the world, largely due to the sheer scale of the detection capabilities the SLF (Institute for Snow and Avalanche research) has at it’s disposal. However risk to an individual skier or snowboarder needs to be augmented by an assessment of the specific conditions the skier or snowboarder finds themselves in. It is the case that even pisted, patrolled runs can be hit by avalanches.

Many back-country skiers are well-prepared for the risk of avalanches, but I believe even resort skiers should be aware of what contributes to avalanche risk, and inspect the terrain they ski through, on or off-piste.

My golden rules are PRICK:

  1. Plan. Decide in advance where you are going and what risk factors may apply. Discuss with your party in advance in which circumstances you would change your plan, e.g. because of a perceived avalanche risk. Ensure you know where you are going and discuss rendez-vous points. Make a note of distinctive features on your route so you can accurately communicate where you are if you need to.
  2. Risk Assess. Check the current avalanche risk assessment for where you are going. Be aware conditions may deteriorate during the day.
  3. Inspect. Before you set out make an assessment of where you are going, visually and taking advantage of local knowledge. Whilst out, look above and around you throughout your day for higher risk features – rocky outcrops and corniches, broken branches on the uphill side of trees and other evidence of previous avalanches, particularly steep (30-45%) or convex slopes…
  4. Choose. Choose your route according to the above factors. If in doubt choose the safest option. Don’t get drawn into the ‘incident pit’.
  5. Kit up. Have the right kit with you. For off-piste, having a working phone on you and RECCO reflectors is a minimum, but equipment required for back-country may also be appropriate for more challenging off-piste conditions. For back-country, tranceivers, probes, shovels and appropriate training are considered essential, and airbags are recommended.

For those not familiar with the RECCO system, it is a very small battery-free transponder, frequently found in ski clothing and backpacks but which can also be purchased separately and attached to helmets, boots or ski jackets. In most resorts rescue teams can detect the presence of a RECCO reflector within around 200m.

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The ski season has started

Les Dents du Midi
The ski season in the Northern Hemisphere has well and truly started, but the snowline has retreated in recent days as warmer weather hit the Alps. Most of the resorts with skiing and snowboarding on glaciers have opened. Verbier, open at weekends to date will be fully open from this weekend.

The weather has caused havoc with the winter sports schedule, with a number of World Cup events re-scheduled. However the higher resorts are gradually opening, and colder conditions and snowfall are due this week. Les Diablerets, for example, is currently enjoying temperatures around 10 degrees Celcius, but will be below freezing by next Monday.

The World Meteorological Organisation says there is a 70% chance of El Niño developing for the ski season this year. If so, it will almost certainly bring colder temperatures and more snowfall than normal to the Alps.

For those looking ahead to Christmas, ski conditions look promising. Zermatt, for example, will see fresh snowfall most days ahead of the Christmas break.

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